Uneven Warming Likely Contributed to Declining Near-Surface Wind Speeds in Northern China Between 1961 and 2016

Abstract

A decline in mean near-surface (10 m) wind speed has been widely reported for many land regions over recent decades, yet the underlying cause(s) remains uncertain. This study investigates changes in near-surface wind speed over northern China from 1961 to 2016, and analyzes the associated physical mechanisms using station observations, reanalysis products and model simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5). The homogenized near-surface wind speed shows a significantly (p < 0.05) decline trend of −0.103 m s−1 decade−1, which stabilized from the 1990s onwards. Similar negative trends are observed for all seasons, with the strongest trends occurring in the central and eastern parts of northern China. Fast warming has occurred at high-latitudes (i.e., >50°N) in recent decades, which has weakened the annual and seasonal meridional air temperature gradient (−0.33°C to −0.12°C dec−1, p < 0.05, except autumn) between these regions (50°–60°N, 75°–135°E) and the northern China zone (35°–45°N, 75°–135°E). This caused a significant (p < 0.05) decrease in annual and seasonal pressure gradient (−0.43 to −0.20 hPa dec−1) between the two zones, which contributed to the slowdown of winds. CAM5 simulations demonstrate that spatially uneven air temperature increases and near-surface wind speed decreases over northern China can be realistically reproduced using the so-called “all forcing” simulation, while the “natural only forcing” simulation fails to realistically simulate the uneven warming patterns and declines in near-surface wind speed over most of northern China, except for summer.