Impact of Anthropogenic CO2 on the Next Glacial Cycle

Abstract

A simple relaxation-type model (García-Olivares and Herrero, 2013) based on an optimization of Paillard and Parrenin (2004), has been used to predict the future evolution of atmospheric CO2, global ice volume and Antarctic ice cover during the next 300 kyr, with and without the atmospheric CO2 perturbation caused by anthropogenic emissions. The initial atmospheric CO2 condition is obtained after a critical data analysis that sets 1300 Gt as the most realistic carbon Ultimate Recoverable Resources, with the help of a global compartmental model to determine the carbon transfer function to the atmosphere. This analysis sets a peak of emissions on year 2037 AD and a maximum CO2 concentration of 519 ppmv in 2300 AD, leading to 20 kyr of abnormally high greenhouse effect. Weathering compensation and emission of methane from clathrates have also been considered as they have relevant effects on the dynamics of the system after the perturbation. The anthropogenic CO2 pulse clearly perturbs the natural cycle for all model variables during the forthcoming 300 kyr. The present interglacial will be lengthen by 25 kyr, as the anthropogenic perturbation will lead to a delay in the future advance of the ice sheet on the Antarctic shelf and a consequent perturbation of the deep ocean stratification, so the relative maximum of boreal insolation 65 kyr AP will not affect the developing glaciation. Instead, it will be the following insolation peak, about 110 kyr AP, which will find an appropriate climatic state to trigger the next deglaciation. The next glacial maximum will take place about 105 kyr AP and the following interglacial will be delayed forward in time by 44 kyr in relation to unperturbed conditions. This study endorses the idea that relaxation type coupled models, despite their simple structure, may retain the principal Earth's climatic interactions, being capable of accounting for the natural evolution of an externally imposed atmospheric CO2 pulse