Epidemiology of Lung Cancer Mortality in Spain: Updated Information (1982–2021) and Predictions up to 2046

Abstract

Background: Patterns of lung cancer (LC) mortality are important for planning health services and resource management. Objectives: We aimed to provide updated information (1982–2021) and project (LC) mortality rates in Spain (2022–2046). Method: We analysed data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute about mortality in LC (1982–2021), and we made predictions for the period 2022–2046. Results: In 2021, a total of 22,413 people died of LC, and for the period 2042–2046, the projected annual average was 25,549 deaths. In males, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) (overall) after an initial period of increase (1982–1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (−1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future (−1.9% per year during the period 2022–2046), although the projected decline is slightly higher (−2.0% during the period 2022–2046). In men, ASMR (all ages) after an initial period of increase (1982–1996, 2.2%) declined until 2021 (−1.4% per year), and this decline is expected to continue in the future during the period 2022–2046. In women, both the overall and truncated rates (35–64) increase during the period 1982–2021 (4.1% and 6.0% per year, respectively), and projected rates showed that both will decrease during the period 2022–2046, although more markedly in the truncated rates (−1.9% per year) than in the overall rates (−0.5% per year). Conclusions: Our projections show the magnitude of a steady upward trend in LC mortality among women in Spain that appears to be beginning to reverse from the current decade (similar to that observed for incidence).