Environmental variability in the North Atlantic and Iberian waters and its influence on horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) and albacore (Thunnus alalunga) dynamics

Abstract

We explore the potential impact of climatic and oceanic variables on the dynamics of horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus (coastal distribution) and albacore Thunnus alalunga (oceanic distribution). Principal components analysis of a set of environmental parameters for the years 1966–2000 allowed us to characterize the system by three components. The first consisted mainly of sea surface temperature (SST; 18.5% of variability), the second was determined by the oceanic transport indices, potential energy anomaly (PEA), and the Gulf Stream Index (15.6%), and the third by the meridional wind component and Ekman transport (11.5%). Horse mackerel recruitment was negatively correlated mainly with the first thermal component, whereas albacore age 3 catches were negatively correlated with the second oceanic component and positively with the third wind component. Multiple linear regression confirmed that environmental conditions [SST, PEA, and the zonal (east–west) wind component] explained the availability of age 3 albacore to the surface fisheries for the period 1975–1999. In contrast, cross-validation analysis showed that environmental conditions did not consistently explain horse mackerel recruitment, probably because of the short time-series available (15 y).