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Título: | Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score |
Autor: | Berenguer, Juan; Borobia, Alberto M.; Ryan, Pablo; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús CSIC ORCID; Bellón, José M.; Jarrín, Inma; Carratalà, Jordi; Pachón, Jerónimo CSIC ORCID; Carcas, Antonio; Yllescas, María; Arribas, José Ramón | Fecha de publicación: | 25-feb-2021 | Editor: | BMJ Publishing Group | Citación: | Thorax 76: 920- 929 (2021) | Resumen: | [Objective] To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms. [Design] Multivariable prognostic prediction model. [Setting] 127 Spanish hospitals. [Participants] Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. [Interventions] Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression. [Main outcome measures] 30-day mortality. [Results] Patients’ characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806–0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819–0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0–2 points (0%–2.1%), moderate with 3–5 (4.7%–6.3%), high with 6–8 (10.6%–19.5%) and very high with 9–30 (27.7%–100%). [Conclusions] A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19. |
Descripción: | COVID-19@Spain and COVID@HULP Study. | Versión del editor: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001 | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/266639 | DOI: | 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001 | Identificadores: | doi: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001 issn: 0040-6376 e-issn: 1468-3296 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | (IBIS) Artículos (PTI Salud Global) Colección Especial COVID-19 |
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COVID-19_SEIMC_score.pdf | 1,53 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |
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