Hindcasting the dynamics of an Eastern Mediterranean marine ecosystem under the impacts of multiple stressors: a baseline for future management simulations

Abstract

In order to analyse the main historical ecosystem dynamics, a temporal dynamic ecosystem model representing the continental shelf of the Israeli Mediterranean coast was developed using Ecosim. Firstly, the model was fitted to available historical data. The historical model predictions satisfactorily matched the observed data, especially regarding the invasive species groups. The model showed an increasing proportion of invasive species in biomass and catch over time. Results highlighted the important role that fishing activities and climate change are playing in the ecosystem. Secondly, the dynamic ecosystem model was used to develop exploratory temporal analysis about future management scenarios. This study represents a baseline from where spatial-temporal simulations can be developed