Vertebrate populations' trends across the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

Understanding and identifying the impacts of multiple stressors on natural populations has become a key objective for post-2020 biodiversity conservation. Of particular concern are the impacts of stressors at the local scale, which are not necessarily reflected in current global conservation assessments. As a hotspot of biodiversity, the Iberian Peninsula is an area of special interest for conservation, but it is currently facing myriad environmental problems. Yet, a synthesis of the impacts of multiple stressors on the Iberian faunal populations is glaringly missing. To contribute to this challenge, we join our efforts in an Early Career Researchers project funded by SIBECOL, which aims to synthesise current knowledge on population trends of Iberian marine, terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates, and, eventually, to identify the most common stressors for Iberian fauna populations, and their differences between major taxonomic groups and ecosystems. Here, we will present the results of the first phase of this project, whose objective was to describe the trends of Iberian vertebrate populations and identify knowledge gaps related to taxonomic groups and ecosystems. To that aim, we conducted an extensive literature review, with more than 5,000 scientific manuscripts and grey literature screened. From this initial review, and after applying data quality controls, we obtained > 1,000 population time series of Iberian vertebrates across marine, terrestrial, and freshwater ecosystems. Once we compiled this database, we analysed the population trends using a two-step modelling process: (i) first, we applied state-space models to derive the population trend of each population time series; and (ii) second, we used multilevel Bayesian models to determine the factors influencing these population trends. Overall, we found that Iberian vertebrate populations display a disparity in trends, with both declines and increases, with fishes (both marine and freshwater) being the taxa showing clear signs of decline. Additionally, we identified important gaps in monitoring data across the Iberian Peninsula, with amphibians and reptiles severely underrepresented in our dataset, despite being among the most threatened taxonomic groups. These gaps may limit our understanding of the impacts of stressors at local scales and eventually bias current conservation assessments. Overall, our approach will bridge the significant gap in our knowledge between the global and local scale conservation status of wild Iberian populations and help focus future conservation policies.