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Título: | Multiplicity Eludes Peer Review: The Case of COVID-19 Research |
Autor: | Gutiérrez-Hernández, Oliver CSIC ORCID ; García, Luis V. CSIC ORCID | Palabras clave: | Multiple hypotheses testing Multiple testing problem False discovery rate (FDR) Environmental research Epidemiology Health geography SARS-CoV-2 |
Fecha de publicación: | 3-sep-2021 | Editor: | Molecular Diversity Preservation International | Citación: | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18(17): 9304 (2021) | Resumen: | Multiplicity arises when data analysis involves multiple simultaneous inferences, increasing the chance of spurious findings. It is a widespread problem frequently ignored by researchers. In this paper, we perform an exploratory analysis of the Web of Science database for COVID-19 observational studies. We examined 100 top-cited COVID-19 peer-reviewed articles based on p-values, including up to 7100 simultaneous tests, with 50% including >34 tests, and 20% > 100 tests. We found that the larger the number of tests performed, the larger the number of significant results (r = 0.87, p < 10−6). The number of p-values in the abstracts was not related to the number of p-values in the papers. However, the highly significant results (p < 0.001) in the abstracts were strongly correlated (r = 0.61, p < 10−6) with the number of p < 0.001 significances in the papers. Furthermore, the abstracts included a higher proportion of significant results (0.91 vs. 0.50), and 80% reported only significant results. Only one reviewed paper addressed multiplicity-induced type I error inflation, pointing to potentially spurious results bypassing the peer-review process. We conclude the need to pay special attention to the increased chance of false discoveries in observational studies, including non-replicated striking discoveries with a potentially large social impact. We propose some easy-to-implement measures to assess and limit the effects of multiplicity. | Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18179304 | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/250726 | DOI: | 10.3390/ijerph18179304 | E-ISSN: | 1660-4601 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | (PTI Salud Global) Colección Especial COVID-19 (IRNAS) Artículos |
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ijerph-18-09304-v2.pdf | 550,72 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |
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