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Título: | Anatomy of digital contact tracing: role of age, transmission setting, adoption and case detection |
Autor: | Moreno López, Jesús A. CSIC ORCID; Arregui García, Beatriz CSIC ORCID; Bentkowski, Piotr; Bioglio, Livio; Pinotti, Francesco; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria; Poletto, Chiara | Fecha de publicación: | 4-mar-2021 | Editor: | MedRxiv | Citación: | MedRxiv: 10.1101/2020.07.22.20158352 (2021) | Resumen: | The efficacy of digital contact tracing against COVID-19 epidemic is debated: smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, non-uniform across age groups, with low coverage among elderly, the most vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact-survey and epidemiological information to describe the risk factors for exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R = 2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence by ~35%. With R = 1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan. | Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20158352 | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/235109 | DOI: | 10.1101/2020.07.22.20158352 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | (PTI Salud Global) Colección Especial COVID-19 (IFISC) Artículos |
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2020.07.22.20158352v2.full.pdf | 1,4 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |
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