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Modelo de evacuación a escala variable. Una herramienta para la gestión de crisis volcánicas

Otros títulosAplicación a los volcanes Teide, Chichón y Poppcatépetl
AutorMarrero, José M.
DirectorRodríguez-Losada, José A.; Ortiz Ramis, Ramón
Fecha de publicaciónmay-2009
EditorUniversidad de La Laguna
CSIC - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN)
ResumenVolcanic crisis management is the most important problem that modern volcanology has. Areas affected by hazardous volcanic phenomena can be very extensive and populated. The alert phase can last a lot of time and the only solution is the preventive evacuation of the whole population. In order to facilitate impact scenarios' integration in Evacuation Plans, in this work an evacuation model has been developed to simulate massive evacuations. This software is integrated in some computer applications that are developed for the volcanic crises management by different european volcanological research groups. Its possibilities are shown simulating evacuations in Teide (Spain), Chichon and Popocatepetl (Mexico) volcanoes. Emergency management is a responsibility of Civil Defense Authority. But if this is related to a volcanic phenomenon, the joint work of scientists and technical staff of the Civil Defense is needed. Emergency management by Civil Defense is based on the information facilitated by the scientific team on volcano's activity forecast and its awaited scenarios. Evacuations for volcanic threat can be extended for a long time so that they need a great quantity of economic and human resources. It is necessary to have updated specific Emergency Plans, in order to make them useful. The ideas developed during this work proceed from hours of discussion between scientists and technical staff of Civil Defense and they are not written in any document of public access. This knowledge represents more than ten years of personal experience in management volcanic crises with the Volcanology Department of the National Museum of Natural Sciences and the Institute Jaume Almera, both related to CSIC, and Edafology and Geology Department of the University of La Laguna (ULL), in collaboration with other countries institutions dedicated to researching, monitoring and managing volcanic emergencies. A review of current models for modeling massive evacuations has been done in order to extract and compare the elements that can be applied to the case of the evacuations in volcanic crisis. One of the most important elements during preventive evacuations is population behavior. Information about population distribution and road network is needed by the /evacuation model/ to simulate the evacuation of a threatened region by a volcano. In addition, the software considers road network vulnerability in relation to ash fall, seismicity and flows. This information is obtained by applying to different methodologies that use a Geographical Information System (GIS). This system also integrates cartography and administrative population databases. This integration requires a great effort because most of the time, administrative databases have not been easily organized for georeference. Besides, in some other cases, cartography has been drawn only using CAD criteria. In order to apply the evacuation model, it is necessary to digitize a road network in point layers and join the total inhabitants number to each point. An important aspect of this development is the automatic definition of crosses and mistakes detection. Population behavior is represented by means of distribution functions which are defined from the knowledge that authorities have of their population. The evacuation model has been programmed using the package BORLAND BUILDER 6. The basic functions have been coded in ANSI C to facilitate the migration to any platform (LINUX, MAC and WINDOWS).
The volcano Teide, Tenerife, Spain, is a stratovolcano with a complete series from basalt to phonolite magmas and the ability to produce explosive eruptions. At the north face of Teide volcano is located Icod de los Vinos municipality, with more than 20000 inhabitants. This municipality is exposed to the volcano activity, landslides, big floods, etc. That is the reason that justifies the application of the evacuation model using a large scale. The available information has allowed to work up to a building level, using a spatial discretization of 10 meters and a temporal discretization of 0.2 seconds. Depending on the evacuation scenario, the evacuation time obtained is between 2 and 20 hours, which demonstrates the importance of realizing a suitable planning of the evacuation. The evacuation model shows the presence of critical points in the road network. This result allows to recommend to the administration the improve of specific works to reduce the evacuation time. The eruption of the Chichon volcano located in Chiapas State (Mexico, 1982) caused more than 2000 death. In order to evaluate the Emergency Plan, Civil Defense of Chiapas realized in January 2009 an exercise of evacuation of Viejo Volcan settlement. The simulation, using the evacuation model, considered 18000 inhabitants situated 3.5 km from the limit of maximum impact scenario. The used simulation parameters are 2 second for temporal discretization and 100 meters for spatial discretization. The inhabitants' association to the road network point layer is done up to a town level. The evacuation is simulated in a collective transport, so that the road capacity parameter is increased. The obtained evacuation times, from 8 to 13 hours, are slightly superior to any day trip. The volcano Popocatepetl is in eruption from 1994 and Mexican authorities have had to evacuate repeatedly several thousands people. For this reason, this volcano has been chosen to evaluate the capacity of the evacuation model behavior, considering the evacuation produced on 19 December 2000, when 15000 persons were evacuated and remained evacuated more than 8 days. The parameters of the simulation are 1 second of temporal discretization and 50 meters for the spacial discretization. The inhabitants' association to the road network point layer is done up to a town level. The evacuation is simulated in a transport supplied by the Civil Defense, so that the road capacity parameter is increased. The evacuation time obtained (5 at 6 hours) are related to the actual duration of the real evacuation.
DescripciónMemoria presentada por D. José Manuel Marrero Llinares para optar al grado de Doctor por la Universidad de La Laguna de Tenerife, Facultad de Biología, Departamento de Edafología y Geología.
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