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Título

Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections

Autor Turco, Marco; Sanna, Antonella; Herrera, S. ; Llasat, M. C.; Gutiérrez, José M.
Fecha de publicación 2013
EditorSpringer
Citación Climatic Change 120(4): 859-869 (2013)
ResumenIn this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (>perfect> boundary conditions) in a common period (1961-2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or >delta>, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
URI http://hdl.handle.net/10261/94407
DOI10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
Identificadoresdoi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
issn: 0165-0009
e-issn: 1573-1480
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