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Predicting average wintertime wind and wave conditions in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas from Eurasian snow cover in october

AuthorsBrands, Swen
KeywordsSeasonal forecasting
Issue Date2014
PublisherInstitute of Physics Publishing
CitationEnvironmental Research Letters 9(4): 045006 (2014)
AbstractThe present study assesses the lead-lag teleconnection between Eurasian snow cover in October and the December-to-February mean boreal winter climate with respect to the predictability of 10m wind speed and significant wave heights in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Lead-lag correlations exceeding a magnitude of 0.8 are found for the short time period of 1997/98 - 2012/13 (n = 16) for which daily 14 satellite-sensed snow cover data is available to date. The respective cross-validated hindcast skill obtained from using linear regression as a statistical forecasting technique is similarly large in magnitude. When using a longer but degraded time series of weekly snow cover data for calculating the predictor variable (1979/80 - 2011/12, n18 = 34), hindcast skill decreases but yet remains signi cant over a large fraction of the study area. In addition, Monte-Carlo eld signi cance tests reveal that the patterns of skill are globally signi cant. The proposed method might be used to make forecast decisions for wind and wave energy generation, seafaring, shery and o shore drilling. To exemplify its potential suitability for the latter sector, it is additionally applied to DJF frequencies of signi cant wave heights exceeding 2m, a threshold value above which mooring conditions at oil platforms are no longer optimal.
DescriptionContent from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence.
Publisher version (URL)http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/045006
Appears in Collections:(IFCA) Artículos
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