Assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M

Abstract

An assessment of the cod stock in NAFO Division 3M is performed. A Bayesian model, as used in the last assessments, was used to perform the analysis. The data set was extend to 1972 and a new tuning survey is used, the Canadian survey during 1978-1985. As there are inconsistencies with total catch of the last two years, a prior was added for 2011 and 2012 catch. Results indicate a fairly substantial increase in SSB, reaching a value well above Blim. The six-years retrospective plots show an underestimation in the recruitment the last two years after several years of underestimation. Three year projections indicate that fishing at the Fstatusquo level should allow SSB to increase slowly in the short term.