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ENSO-driven skill of ENSEMBLES STREAM 2 multimodel seasonal precipitation hindcasts over the globe

AuthorsManzanas, R. ; Gutiérrez, José M. ; Cofiño, A. S.; Frías, M. D.
Issue DateMay-2010
CitationEGU 2010
AbstractSeasonal forecasting is a promising research field with enormous potential impact in different socio-economic sectors. The ability to forecast unusual climate conditions such as droughts or hot spells a few months in advance is particularly interesting in agriculture, energy requirements and other human affairs in order to avoid severe consequences. This study assesses the skill of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast considering five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models from the Stream 2 multimodel experiment of the European ENSEMBLES Project. The methodology applied by Frías et al 2010 over Spain is here extended to the world to present a map of regions with a significant seasonal predictability related to ENSO. To this aim, seven month hindcast simulations produced four times per year (November, February, May and August initializations) in the period 1961-2000 are analyzed. In a first step, validations are carried out separately for each season; winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and autumn (SON), considering both one and four-months lead time predictions (e.g. initializations of November and August are considered for winter). Then, since ENSO is considered to globally dominate interannual climate variability, the same process is repeated, but restricting validations exclusively to the years of the strongest El Niño and La Niña events.
DescriptionTrabajo presentado al European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010 celebrado en Viena (Austria) del 2 al 7 de Mayo de 2010.
Publisher version (URL)http://meetings.copernicus.org/egu2010/
Appears in Collections:(IFCA) Comunicaciones congresos
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