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International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict

AuthorsKalyvas, Stathis N.; Balcells, Laia
KeywordsCivil war
Cold war
Irregular war
Guerrilla war
Issue DateAug-2010
PublisherCambridge University Press
CitationAmerican Political Science Review 104(3): 415-429 (2010)
AbstractRecent research on civil wars finds that the end of the Cold War had no impact on internal conflict. By disaggregating civil wars on the basis of the ways in which civil wars are fought (the technology of rebellion: irregular, conventional, and symmetric non-conventional), we reach a different conclusion: we identify a massive decline of irregular wars or insurgencies following the end of the Cold War, something that amounts to a radical transformation of civil war. This decline is striking and very robust to multivariate analysis. Our theoretical account highlights the effect of shifting superpower support for both states and rebels on the residual capacity of states; it brings the international system into the study of internal conflict, underscores the relevance of warfare for the study of civil wars, and demonstrates that rather than being a universal technology of rebellion, the predominance of insurgency is a historically contingent political phenomenon linked to the structural dynamics of the Cold War.
Description15 páginas, 3 figuras, 3 tablas.
Publisher version (URL)http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055410000286
Appears in Collections:(IAE) Artículos
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