Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar a este item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/35415
COMPARTIR / EXPORTAR:
SHARE BASE | |
Visualizar otros formatos: MARC | Dublin Core | RDF | ORE | MODS | METS | DIDL | DATACITE | |
Título: | Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity |
Autor: | Rondina, Francesca CSIC ORCID | Palabras clave: | Model uncertainty Robust policy Bayesian model averaging Minimax Oil prices |
Fecha de publicación: | 24-nov-2010 | Citación: | UFAE and IAE Working Papers ; 855.10 | Resumen: | This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil. | Descripción: | JEL Classification: C52, E52, E58.-- Trabajo presentado a: "Fourth Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics (ICEEE)" celebrado en Italia en 2011; "Bayesian Econometric Workshop" celebrado en Italia en 2011; "Society for Computational Economics - Computing in Economics and Finance" celebrado en USA en 2011; "XXXV Simposio de la Asociación Española de Economía (SAEe)" celebrado en España en 2010. | Versión del editor: | http://pareto.uab.es/wp/2010/85510.pdf | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/35415 |
Aparece en las colecciones: | (IAE) Informes y documentos de trabajo |
Ficheros en este ítem:
Fichero | Descripción | Tamaño | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|---|
85510.pdf | 480,65 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |
CORE Recommender
Page view(s)
276
checked on 24-abr-2024
Download(s)
135
checked on 24-abr-2024
Google ScholarTM
Check
NOTA: Los ítems de Digital.CSIC están protegidos por copyright, con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.