Stability of the seasonal distribution of precipitation in the Mediterranean region: Observations since 1950 and projections for the 21st century

Abstract

A gridded data set of precipitation records since 1950 was used to assess how observed precipitation trends in the Mediterranean area have affected the contribution of monthly precipitation to total annual precipitation in the region. Simulations of nine AOGCMs for a control period (1961–1990) and a SRES A1B scenario (2040–2070) were also used to explore potential future changes. The results indicate that the seasonal distribution of precipitation has remained stable in most of the Mediterranean basin, and that this is expected to remain the case for the first half of the 21st century. This finding is independent of existing precipitation trends and any predicted reduction in precipitation.