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Título: | Modeling of vaccination and contact tracing as tools to control the COVID-19 outbreak in Spain |
Autor: | Colomer, M. Àngels; Margalida, Antoni CSIC ORCID ; Alòs, Francesc; Oliva-Vidal, Pilar CSIC ORCID; Vilella, Anna; Fraile, Lorenzo | Palabras clave: | Control measures Vaccination Population dynamic P system Spain |
Fecha de publicación: | 14-abr-2021 | Editor: | Molecular Diversity Preservation International | Citación: | Vaccines 9(4): 386 (2021) | Resumen: | We developed an agent-based stochastic model, based on P Systems methodology, to decipher the effects of vaccination and contact tracing on the control of COVID-19 outbreak at population level under different control measures (social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene) and epidemiological scenarios. Our findings suggest that without the application of protection social measures, 56.1% of the Spanish population would contract the disease with a mortality of 0.4%. Assuming that 20% of the population was protected by vaccination by the end of the summer of 2021, it would be expected that 45% of the population would contract the disease and 0.3% of the population would die. However, both of these percentages are significantly lower when social measures were adopted, being the best results when social measures are in place and 40% of contacts traced. Our model shows that if 40% of the population can be vaccinated, even without social control measures, the percentage of people who die or recover from infection would fall from 0.41% and 56.1% to 0.16% and 33.5%, respectively compared with an unvaccinated population. When social control measures were applied in concert with vaccination the percentage of people who die or recover from infection diminishes until 0.10% and 14.5%, after vaccinating 40% of the population. Vaccination alone can be crucial in controlling this disease, but it is necessary to vaccinate a significant part of the population and to back this up with social control measures. | Descripción: | This article belongs to the Section COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination. | Versión del editor: | https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9040386 | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/241020 | DOI: | 10.3390/vaccines9040386 | E-ISSN: | 2076-393X |
Aparece en las colecciones: | (PTI Salud Global) Colección Especial COVID-19 (IREC) Artículos |
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vaccines-09-00386.pdf | 10,34 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |
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