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Mapping the Hazard of Extreme Rainfall by Peaks over Threshold Extreme Value Analysis and Spatial Regression Techniques

AuthorsBeguería, Santiago
Issue DateJan-2006
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
CitationJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 45 (1): 108-124
AbstractThe occurrence of rainfalls of high magnitude constitutes a primary natural hazard in many parts of the world, and the elaboration of maps showing the hazard of extreme rainfalls has great theoretical and practical interest. In this work a procedure based on extreme value analysis and spatial interpolation techniques is described. The result is a probability model in which the distribution parameters vary smoothly in space. This methodology is applied to the middle Ebro Valley (Spain), a climatically complex area with great contrasts because of the relief and exposure to different air masses. The database consists of 43 daily precipitation series from 1950 to 2000. Because rainfall tends to occur highly clustered in time in the area, a declustering process was applied to the data, and the series of daily cluster maxima were used hereinafter. The mean excess plot and error minimizing were used to find an optimum threshold value to retain the highest records (peaks-over-threshold approach), and a Poisson–generalized Pareto model was fitted to the resulting series. The at-site parameter estimates (location, scale, and shape) were regressed upon a set of location and relief variables, enabling the construction of a spatially explicit probability model. The advantages of this method to obtain maps of extreme precipitation hazard are discussed in depth.
Description55 Pag., 6 Tabl., 10 Fig. The definitive version is available at: http://www.ametsoc.org/
Publisher version (URL)http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAM2324.1
Appears in Collections:(IPE) Artículos
(EEAD) Artículos
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