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A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamics in COVID-19

AuthorsPapo, David; Righetti, Marco; Fadiga, Luciano; Biscarini, Fabio; Zanin, Massimiliano
Discrete-time model
Patients’ dynamics
Issue Date28-Jul-2020
PublisherElsevier BV
CitationChaos Solitons and Fractals 140: 110157 (2020)
AbstractItaly has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.
Publisher version (URL)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110157
Appears in Collections:(IFISC) Artículos
(VICYT) Colección Especial COVID-19
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