Experts’ request to the Spanish Government: move Spain towards complete lockdown

Abstract

We would like to express our concern about the limited capacity of actions taken by the Spanish Government to successfully control the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak and end the exponential growth phase of new cases. The measures taken so far, consisting primarily of partial restriction mobility, are in the right direction, although some researchers have warned about the pressure placed on the building blocks of the health system.1

Given that the actual extent of an epidemic can only be assessed retrospectively, governments and policy makers are forced to make decisions on the basis of mathematical models of other diseases and previous experiences by other countries taking different actions.2 In Spain, various models simulating the spread of infection and using different assumptions converge in a landscape of a high number of new cases within the next few weeks. Simulations have been done using the URV and UNIZAR models to predict the progression of the number of patients who will require admission into hospital intensive care units because of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in three scenarios (appendix): scenario 1, no mobility restrictions; scenario 2, partial restriction of mobility (ie, movement to the workplace allowed for 30% of people); and scenario 3, complete restriction of mobility (ie, no workplace mobility allowed except for essential services).