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Developing a spatial epidemiological model to estimate Xylella fastidiosa dispersal and spread

AuthorsChapman, Daniel; Parnell, Stephen; Mastin, Alex; Navas Cortés, Juan Antonio ; Maiorano, Andrea; Ochibove, Flavia; White, Steven
Issue DateOct-2019
Citation2nd European conference on Xylella fastidiosa (2019)
AbstractUnderstanding the dispersal of Xylella fastidiosais essential for effective management of the disease. In Puglia, Italy, surveillance is focused on buffer and containment zones, which have been established at the edge of the infected region with the aim of containing further spread. Success of this strategy will strongly depend on whether these zones are wide enough to form a barrier to long-distance dispersal of the bacterium. In this presentation, I will describe our progress towards estimating the dispersal range of Xylellain Puglia using a generic spatial epidemiological model adapted to the biology of the pathosystem. The model simulates the spread of the disease across a heterogeneous landscape depending on the location and timing of introduction, the distribution of host plants, the rate of infection growth in infected olive groves and both short-and long-distance dispersal. Long-distance dispersal seems to be a crucial feature of the Xylellaepidemic, causing rapid spread of the disease over large areas but in an unpredictable manner. To try to estimate long-distance dispersal, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation to calibrate the epidemiological model to observed detections in surveillance monitoring data from 2013 to 2018. I will present resultsfrom the model calibration, comparing long-distance dispersal estimates from models specified for different long-range dispersal mechanisms. This will inform discussion on the roles of mechanisms such as vehicle transport and wind dispersal in spreading Xylellaat regional scales.
DescriptionTrabajo presentado en la 2nd European conference on Xylella fastidiosa (how research can support solutions), celebrada en Ajaccio el 29 y 30 de octubre de 2019.
Appears in Collections:(IAS) Comunicaciones congresos
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