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An epidemiological model for the short-range spread of Xylella fastidiosa and the assessment of eradication management measures

AuthorsGilioli, Gianni; Simonetto, A.; Bazarra, N.; Boscia, Donato; Bosco, D.; Colturato, M.; Dongiovanni, C.; Fernández García, José Ramón ; Jacques, M. A.; Maiorano, Andrea; Maixner, M.; Martinetti, D.; Miranda, Miguel Ángel; Naso, M. G.; Navas Cortés, Juan Antonio ; Saponari, Maria; Stancanelli, G.; Parnell, Stephen
Issue DateOct-2019
Citation2nd European conference on Xylella fastidiosa (2019)
AbstractEarly detection of the new outbreaks of Xylella fastidiosaand knowledge of the disease dynamics are key elements for an effective management of new foci. These elements where explored in the Update of the Scientific Opinion on the risks to plant health posed by Xylella fastidiosain the EU territory, recentlypublished by EFSA. In this opinion,a short-range spread model was used to investigate the spatial dynamics of a new outbreak in a free area and to comparatively assess the control measures aimed at local eradication of the disease. A process-based approach was used to describe the bacterial growth in a plant in relation to the symptoms/disease progression, the population dynamics of the spittlebug and the vector-mediated transmission. The model parameters were derived from the data acquired on the spread of X. fastidiosasubsp. paucain olive groves in the Apulia region. Four epidemiological scenarios were considered combining host susceptibility and vector abundance. Four management options were considered to account for the timeline for the detection and for the implementation of control measures, efficacy of vector control and plant removal. Simulation results showed that the spread rate of the disease increases over time with anon-linear pattern depending on the scenario components. High efficacy of nymph and adult vector control and short delay in detection and implementation of control measures are key factors for the successful eradication of an outbreak in a free area. Model structure and flexibility make it possible to explore a wide range of conditions to account for different vector species, bacterial strains, vegetation components, landscape structures (homogeneous, heterogeneous but continuous, patchy) and combinations of management options. This makes the model a suitable tool to support decision making for the drafting and management of emergency plans related to new outbreaks.
DescriptionTrabajo presentado en la 2nd European conference on Xylella fastidiosa (how research can support solutions), celebrada en Ajaccio el 29 y 30 de octubre de 2019.
Appears in Collections:(IAS) Comunicaciones congresos
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