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Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

AuthorsTang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando Moraira, Sonia ; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; López-Pujol, Jordi
Issue Date26-Jul-2017
CitationXIX International Botanical Congress (2017)
AbstractThe conservation and management of Tertiary relict plants will eventually depend on knowledge of their geographic distribution and the environmental changes that threaten them. This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the midhigh mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5¿1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.
DescriptionTrabajo presentado en el XIX International Botanical Congress (IBC 2017), celebrado en Shenzhen (China) del 23 al 29 de julio de 2017
Appears in Collections:(IBB) Comunicaciones congresos
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