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Development and validation of the INCREMENT-ESBL predictive score for mortality in patients with bloodstream infections due to extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae

AuthorsPalacios-Baena, Zaira Raquel; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Belén; Cueto, Marina de; Viale, Pierluigi; Venditti, Mario; Hernández, Alicia; Oliver, Antonio; Martínez-Martínez, Luis; Calbo, Esther; Pintado, Vicente; Gasch, Oriol; Almirante, Benito; Lepe, José A.; Pitout, Johann; Akova, Murat; Peña, Carmen; Schwaber, Mitchell J.; Tumbarello, Mario; Tacconelli, Evelina; Origüen, Julia; Prim, Nuria; Bou, Germán; Giamarellou, Helen; Bermejo, Joaquín; Hamprecht, Axel; Pérez, Federico; Almela, Manel; Lowman, Warren; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Navarro-San Francisco, Carolina; Torre-Cisneros, Julián; Carmeli, Yehuda; Bonomo, Robert A.; Paterson, David L.; Pascual, Álvaro; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús
Issue DateMar-2017
PublisherOxford University Press
CitationJournal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 72(3): 906-913 (2017)
Abstract[Background] Bloodstream infections (BSIs) due to ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are frequent yet outcome prediction rules for clinical use have not been developed. The objective was to define and validate a predictive risk score for 30 day mortality.
[Methods] A multinational retrospective cohort study including consecutive episodes of BSI due to ESBL-E was performed; cases were randomly assigned to a derivation cohort (DC) or a validation cohort (VC). The main outcome variable was all-cause 30 day mortality. A predictive score was developed using logistic regression coefficients for the DC, then tested in the VC.
[Results] The DC and VC included 622 and 328 episodes, respectively. The final multivariate logistic regression model for mortality in the DC included age >50 years (OR = 2.63; 95% CI: 1.18–5.85; 3 points), infection due to Klebsiella spp. (OR = 2.08; 95% CI: 1.21–3.58; 2 points), source other than urinary tract (OR = 3.6; 95% CI: 2.02–6.44; 3 points), fatal underlying disease (OR = 3.91; 95% CI: 2.24–6.80; 4 points), Pitt score >3 (OR = 3.04; 95 CI: 1.69–5.47; 3 points), severe sepsis or septic shock at presentation (OR = 4.8; 95% CI: 2.72–8.46; 4 points) and inappropriate early targeted therapy (OR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.58–4.63; 2 points). The score showed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.85 in the DC and 0.82 in the VC. Mortality rates for patients with scores of < 11 and ≥11 were 5.6% and 45.9%, respectively, in the DC, and 5.4% and 34.8% in the VC.
[Conclusions] We developed and validated an easy-to-collect predictive scoring model for all-cause 30 day mortality useful for identifying patients at high and low risk of mortality.
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