English   español  
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/181676
Share/Impact:
Statistics
logo share SHARE   Add this article to your Mendeley library MendeleyBASE
Visualizar otros formatos: MARC | Dublin Core | RDF | ORE | MODS | METS | DIDL | DATACITE
Exportar a otros formatos:

Title

Critical transitions in malaria transmission models are consistently generated by superinfection

AuthorsAlonso, David CSIC ORCID ; Dobson, A. P.; Pascual, Mercedes
KeywordsMalaria dynamics
Critical transitions
Alternative steady states
Malaria superinfection
Backward bifurcation
Hysteresis in malaria model
Issue Date2019
PublisherRoyal Society (Great Britain)
CitationPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society-B 374: 20180275 (2019)
AbstractThe history of modelling vector-borne infections essentially begins with the papers by Ross on malaria. His models assume that the dynamics of malaria can most simply be characterized by two equations that describe the prevalence of malaria in the human and mosquito hosts. This structure has formed the central core of models for malaria and most other vector-borne diseases for the past century, with additions acknowledging important aetiological details.We partially add to this tradition by describing amalaria model that provides for vital dynamics in the vector and the possibility of superinfection in the human host: reinfection of asymptomatic hosts before they have cleared a prior infection. These key features of malaria aetiology create the potential for break points in the prevalence of infected hosts, sudden transitions that seem to characterize malaria’s response to control in different locations. We show that this potential for critical transitions is a general and underappreciated feature of any model for vector-borne diseases with incomplete immunity, including the canonical Ross–McDonald model. Ignoring these details of the host’s immune response to infection can potentially lead to serious misunderstanding in the interpretation of malaria distribution patterns and the design of control schemes for other vector-borne diseases. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.
DescriptionEste artículo contiene 11 páginas, 6 figuras, 1 tabla.
Publisher version (URL)http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0275
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/181676
ISSN0080-4622
Appears in Collections:(CEAB) Artículos
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Alonso.pdf1,26 MBAdobe PDFThumbnail
View/Open
Show full item record
Review this work
 


WARNING: Items in Digital.CSIC are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.