English   español  
Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar a este item: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/150179
COMPARTIR / IMPACTO:
Estadísticas
logo share SHARE logo core CORE   Add this article to your Mendeley library MendeleyBASE

Visualizar otros formatos: MARC | Dublin Core | RDF | ORE | MODS | METS | DIDL
Exportar a otros formatos:
Título

Stochastic amplification in epidemics

AutorAlonso, David ; McKane, A. J.; Pascual, Mercedes
Palabras claveChildhood diseases
Endogenous stochastic resonance
Epidemics
Oscillations
Stochastic modelling
Fecha de publicación2007
EditorRoyal Society (Great Britain)
CitaciónJournal of the Royal Society Interface 4 : 575-582 (2007)
ResumenThe role of stochasticity and its interplay with nonlinearity are central current issues in studies of the complex population patterns observed in nature, including the pronounced oscillations of wildlife and infectious diseases. The dynamics of childhood diseases have provided influential case studies to develop and test mathematical models with practical application to epidemiology, but are also of general relevance to the central question of whether simple nonlinear systems can explain and predict the complex temporal and spatial patterns observed in nature outside laboratory conditions. Here, we present a stochastic theory for the major dynamical transitions in epidemics from regular to irregular cycles, which relies on the discrete nature of disease transmission and low spatial coupling. The full spectrum of stochastic fluctuations is derived analytically to show how the amplification of noise varies across these transitions. The changes in noise amplification and coherence appear robust to seasonal forcing, questioning the role of seasonality and its interplay with deterministic components of epidemiological models. Childhood diseases are shown to fall into regions of parameter space of high noise amplification. This type of ‘endogenous’ stochastic resonance may be relevant to population oscillations in nonlinear ecological systems in general.
DescripciónEste artículo contiene 8 páginas, 4 figuras.
Versión del editorhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0192
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/150179
DOI10.1098/rsif.2006.0192
ISSN1742-5689
E-ISSN1742-5662
Aparece en las colecciones: (CEAB) Artículos
Ficheros en este ítem:
No hay ficheros asociados a este ítem.
Mostrar el registro completo
 

Artículos relacionados:


NOTA: Los ítems de Digital.CSIC están protegidos por copyright, con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.