A Pan-European representative ground motion model

Abstract

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) are recognised as a key component of any seismic risk analysis. The consideration of both aleatory and epistemic sources of variability in the ground motion models may have significant influence on the overestimation or underestimation of the final losses. With the increased availability of new developed GMPEs over the past few years, it has been observed that the epistemic uncertainty due the choice between potential GMPEs is not decreasing, even though related knowledge is improving.