Temperature, heat content and sea level changes in the western Mediterranean: long-term trends and natural oscillations

Abstract

We analyze temperature, salinity and sea level time series in Málaga Bay, extending from October 1992 to October 2005, and series of temperature and sea level at L’Estartit, extending from 1974 to 2005. In both areas a warming trend is detected, but it is also observed a reversal during the initial years of the twenty first century. This reversal is just a fraction of the total accumulated temperature and heat content change in the case of L’Estartit time series not being able to obscure the general trend. Nevertheless it is different in the shorter Málaga time series. These results prevent from extracting conclusions from short time series as natural oscillations superimposed on long term changes can alter the results