English   español  
Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar a este item: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/139945
logo share SHARE logo core CORE   Add this article to your Mendeley library MendeleyBASE

Visualizar otros formatos: MARC | Dublin Core | RDF | ORE | MODS | METS | DIDL
Exportar a otros formatos:

New coronavirus outbreak. Lessons learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic

AutorÁlvarez, Enrique; Donado-Campos, J; Morillas, Francisco
Palabras claveEmerging infections
Fecha de publicación16-ene-2015
EditorCambridge University Press
CitaciónEpidemiology and Infection 143: 2882- 2893 (2015)
Resumen© Cambridge University Press 2015. System dynamics approach offers great potential for addressing how intervention policies can affect the spread of emerging infectious diseases in complex and highly networked systems. Here, we develop a model that explains the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic that occurred in Hong Kong in 2003. The dynamic model developed with system dynamics methodology included 23 variables (five states, four flows, eight auxiliary variables, six parameters), five differential equations and 12 algebraic equations. The parameters were optimized following an iterative process of simulation to fit the real data from the epidemics. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the reliability of the model. In addition, we discuss how further testing using this model can inform community interventions to reduce the risk in current and future outbreaks, such as the recently Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic.
Identificadoresdoi: 10.1017/S095026881400377X
issn: 1469-4409
Aparece en las colecciones: (CBM) Artículos
Ficheros en este ítem:
Fichero Descripción Tamaño Formato  
Álvarez E New coronavirus.pdf502,64 kBAdobe PDFVista previa
Mostrar el registro completo

Artículos relacionados:

NOTA: Los ítems de Digital.CSIC están protegidos por copyright, con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.