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Title

New coronavirus outbreak. Lessons learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic

AuthorsÁlvarez, Enrique; Donado-Campos, J; Morillas, Francisco
KeywordsEmerging infections
epidemics
MERS-CoV
modelling
SARS-CoV
Issue Date16-Jan-2015
PublisherCambridge University Press
CitationEpidemiology and Infection 143: 2882- 2893 (2015)
Abstract© Cambridge University Press 2015. System dynamics approach offers great potential for addressing how intervention policies can affect the spread of emerging infectious diseases in complex and highly networked systems. Here, we develop a model that explains the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic that occurred in Hong Kong in 2003. The dynamic model developed with system dynamics methodology included 23 variables (five states, four flows, eight auxiliary variables, six parameters), five differential equations and 12 algebraic equations. The parameters were optimized following an iterative process of simulation to fit the real data from the epidemics. Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the reliability of the model. In addition, we discuss how further testing using this model can inform community interventions to reduce the risk in current and future outbreaks, such as the recently Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic.
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10261/139945
DOI10.1017/S095026881400377X
Identifiersdoi: 10.1017/S095026881400377X
issn: 1469-4409
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