English   español  
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/139902
logo share SHARE logo core CORE   Add this article to your Mendeley library MendeleyBASE

Visualizar otros formatos: MARC | Dublin Core | RDF | ORE | MODS | METS | DIDL
Exportar a otros formatos:
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSousa, Pedro M.-
dc.contributor.authorTrigo, Ricardo M.-
dc.contributor.authorPereira, Mário G.-
dc.contributor.authorBedia, Joaquín-
dc.contributor.authorGutiérrez, José M.-
dc.identifierdoi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.018-
dc.identifierissn: 0168-1923-
dc.identifiere-issn: 1873-2240-
dc.identifier.citationAgricultural and Forest Meteorology 202: 11- 25 (2015)-
dc.description.abstractIn this work we developed projections for future fire regimes in the Iberian Peninsula using outputs from Regional Climate Model (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES project. Wildfires are the cause of major ecological and economic impacts in this region, and the increasing evidence of climate change consequences in this region raises concerns on the future impacts of fires in the Iberian forests ecosystems. Our results confirm that the inter-annual variability of total burnt area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions, in spite of the current efforts for fire control and suppression. We also show that this meteorology dominance over fire activity is not only true during the fire season itself, but also that certain specific meteorological backgrounds (such as prolonged droughts) may enhance the risk for severe wildfire episodes in some areas. Based on a previous classification of the Iberian Peninsula into four distinct pyro-regions, we developed statistical models which reproduce about two thirds of the inter-annual variability of the burnt area, using meteorological variables as predictors (calibrated with data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis). Specific models were developed for each sub-domain, testing their robustness for extrapolation under climate-change conditions. Using an ensemble of state-of-the-art RCM future climate scenarios, we present future BA projections considering two alternative techniques of statistical correction of model data often used in climate change impact studies: (1) unbiasing method; (2) delta change method. Our results clearly project large increases in mean burnt areas for all the considered pyro-regions, despite some fluctuations regarding each considered technique. By 2075, mean burnt areas could be about two to three times larger than in the present, taking into account current climate projections for the next century, and non-significant changes in other external factors, such as human activity, fire suppression or land use.-
dc.description.sponsorshipPedro M. Sousa was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) through a doctoral grant (SFRH/BD/84395/2012). Mario Gonzalez Pereira was supported by national funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project PEst-OE/AGR/UI4033/2014.-
dc.subjectIberian peninsula-
dc.subjectFuture projections-
dc.subjectRegression models-
dc.subjectRegional climate models-
dc.titleDifferent approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula-
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewed-
dc.contributor.funderFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal)-
Appears in Collections:(IFCA) Artículos
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
accesoRestringido.pdf15,38 kBAdobe PDFThumbnail
Show simple item record

Related articles:

WARNING: Items in Digital.CSIC are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.