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dc.contributor.authorCastellanos-Frías, Elena-
dc.contributor.authorGarcía de León, David-
dc.contributor.authorPujadas-Salvá, Antonio José-
dc.contributor.authorDorado, José-
dc.contributor.authorGonzález-Andújar, José Luis-
dc.identifierdoi: 10.1111/aab.12117-
dc.identifierissn: 1744-7348-
dc.identifier.citationAnnals of Applied Biology 165(1): 53- 61 (2014)-
dc.description.abstractAvena sterilis (sterile oat) is one of the most extended and harmful weeds in Mediterranean cereal crops. A process-based niche model for this species was developed using CLIMEX. The model was validated and used to assess the potential distribution of A. sterilis in Europe under the current climate and under two climate change scenarios. Both scenarios represent contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. The projections under current climate conditions indicated that A. sterilis does not occupy the full extent of the climatically suitable habitat available to it in Europe. Under future climate scenarios, the model projection showed a gradual advance of sterile oat towards Northeastern Europe and a contraction in Southern Europe. The infested potential area increases from the current 45.2% to 51.3% in the low-emission CO2 scenario and to 59.5% under the most extreme scenario. These results provide the necessary knowledge for identifying and highlighting the potential invasion risk areas and for establishing the grounds on which to base the planning and management measures required. The main actions should be focused on controlling the large-scale seed scattering, preventing seed dispersal into potentially suitable areas.-
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, Consejería de Educación y Ciencia de la Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha of Spain and the FEDER funds (project POII10-0123- 5554 and project AGL2012-33736).-
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons-
dc.subjectBiological invasion-
dc.subjectGeneral circulation model-
dc.subjectNiche model-
dc.subjectSterile oat-
dc.titlePotential distribution of Avena sterilis L. In Europe under climate change-
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewed-
dc.contributor.funderMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)-
dc.contributor.funderJunta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha-
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commission-
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