English   español  
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/125958
logo share SHARE   Add this article to your Mendeley library MendeleyBASE

Visualizar otros formatos: MARC | Dublin Core | RDF | ORE | MODS | METS | DIDL
Exportar a otros formatos:

Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise

AuthorsDangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta ; Müller, Alfred; Zorita, Eduardo; Riva, Riccardo; Berk, Kevin; Jensen, Jürgen
Issue Date29-Jul-2015
PublisherNature Publishing Group
CitationNature Communications 6(29 July): 7849 (2015)
Abstract© 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. While there is scientific consensus that global and local mean sea level (GMSL and LMSL) has risen since the late nineteenth century, the relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic forcing remains unclear. Here we provide a probabilistic upper range of long-term persistent natural GMSL/LMSL variability (P=0.99), which in turn, determines the minimum/maximum anthropogenic contribution since 1900. To account for different spectral characteristics of various contributing processes, we separate LMSL into two components: a slowly varying volumetric component and a more rapidly changing atmospheric component. We find that the persistence of slow natural volumetric changes is underestimated in records where transient atmospheric processes dominate the spectrum. This leads to a local underestimation of possible natural trends of up to ∼ 1 mm per year erroneously enhancing the significance of anthropogenic footprints. The GMSL, however, remains unaffected by such biases. On the basis of a model assessment of the separate components, we conclude that it is virtually certain (P=0.99) that at least 45% of the observed increase in GMSL is of anthropogenic origin.
Publisher version (URL)http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8849
Identifiersdoi: 10.1038/ncomms8849
issn: 2041-1723
Appears in Collections:(IMEDEA) Artículos
Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Dangendorf-Nature_Comm-2015-a7849.pdf6,81 MBAdobe PDFThumbnail
Show full item record
Review this work

WARNING: Items in Digital.CSIC are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.