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Endogenous Growth and Wave-Like Business Fluctuation

AutorBambi, Mauro; Gozzi, Fausto; Licandro, Omar
Palabras claveEndogenous fluctuations
Endogenous growth
Hopf bifurcation
Innovation cycles
Medium-term cycles
Time delays
Fecha de publicación1-nov-2014
EditorAcademia Press
CitaciónJournal of Economic Theory 154: 68-111 (2014)
ResumenThis paper argues that observed long lags in innovation implementation rationalize Schumpeter's statement that >wave-like fluctuations in businessz.. are the form economic development takes in the era of capitalism.> Adding implementation delays to an otherwise standard endogenous growth model with expanding product variety, the equilibrium path admits a Hopf bifurcation where consumption, R&D and output permanently fluctuate. This mechanism is quantitatively consistent with the observed medium-term movements of US aggregate output. In this framework, an optimal allocation may be restored at equilibrium by the mean of a procyclical subsidy, needed to generate additional consumption smoothing. Finally, a procyclical R&D subsidy rate designed to half consumption fluctuations will increase the growth rate from 2.4% to 3.4% with a 9.6% (compensation equivalent) increase in welfare. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.
Versión del editorhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2014.08.004
Identificadoresdoi: 10.1016/j.jet.2014.08.004
issn: 0022-0531
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