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Título

Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy

Autor García-Olivares, Antonio ; Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim
Palabras clave Limits to growth
sustainable future
steady-state economy
US GDP
energy security
Fecha de publicación ene-2015
EditorElsevier
Citación Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90(partB): 587-598 (2015)
ResumenThe coming fossil fuel peak may cause shortages in energy supplies and major disturbances in the global economy. The forecasts for the future of our way of life are very divergent depending on the prediction used for future human access to energy, and they range between collapse and indefinite growth. The LINEX production function, which depends on energy input, was modified, calibrated and used to model the gross domestic product (GDP) of the US economy under several different energy scenarios after the fossil fuel peak. The effects of information and communication technologies and technological innovation after energetic crises have been also modeled. A future renewable mix of global scale will require the use of a major fraction of the reserves of several important minerals. In this context, a future steady-state economy appears to be the best plausible scenario. Some of the implications and challenges derived from this steady-state economy are discussed. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.
Descripción 12 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, 1 annex
Versión del editorhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013
URI http://hdl.handle.net/10261/111548
DOI10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013
Identificadoresdoi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.013
issn: 0040-1625
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