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Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia

AuthorsLeoncini, Riccardo; Rentocchini, Francesco
Drug seizures
Cocaine production
Issue Date2012
CitationInternational Journal of Drug Policy 23(6): 449-457 (2012)
Abstract[Background]: Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine. [Methods]: We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. [Results]: Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
Publisher version (URL)http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.drugpo.2012.03.003
Identifiersdoi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2012.03.003
issn: 0955-3959
Appears in Collections:(INGENIO) Artículos
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