2024-03-29T00:47:13Zhttp://digital.csic.es/dspace-oai/requestoai:digital.csic.es:10261/1262232016-02-18T03:45:29Zcom_10261_39226com_10261_8col_10261_42742
S4CAST v2.0: sea surface temperature based statistical seasonal forecast model
Suárez-Moreno, Roberto
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
Sea surface temperature
Forecasting
Sea surface temperature is the key variable when tackling seasonal to decadal climate forecasts. Dynamical models are unable to properly reproduce tropical climate variability, introducing biases that prevent a skillful predictability. Statistical methodologies emerge as an alternative to improve the predictability and reduce these biases. In addition, recent studies have put forward the non-stationary behavior of the teleconnections between tropical oceans, showing how the same tropical mode has different impacts depending on the considered sequence of decades. To improve the predictability and investigate possible teleconnections, the sea surface temperature based statistical seasonal foreCAST model (S4CAST) introduces the novelty of considering the non-stationary links between the predictor and predictand fields. This paper describes the development of the S4CAST model whose operation is focused on studying the impacts of sea surface temperature on any climate-related variable. Two applications focused on analyzing the predictability of different climatic events have been implemented as benchmark examples.
The research leading to these results received
funding from the PREFACE-EU project (EU FP7/2007-2013) under
grant agreement no. 603521, Spanish national project MINECO
(CGL2012-38923-C02-01) and the VR: 101/11 project from the
VIII UCM Call for Cooperation and Development projects.
Peer reviewed
2015-12-01T07:20:58Z
2015-12-01T07:20:58Z
2015-11-06
artículo
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (11): 3639-3658 (2015)
1991-959X
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/126223
10.5194/gmd-8-3639-2015
1991-9603
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329
en
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info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603521
Publisher's version
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3639-2015
Sí
open
European Geosciences Union
Copernicus Publications