2024-03-30T03:29:59Zhttp://digital.csic.es/dspace-oai/requestoai:digital.csic.es:10261/189242020-11-10T08:12:51Zcom_10261_123com_10261_8col_10261_376
Lloret, Josep
Lleonart, Jordi
Solé, Ignasi
2009-11-23T11:44:18Z
2009-11-23T11:44:18Z
2000-02
ICES Journal of Marine Science, 57: 171-184 (2000)
1054-3139
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/18924
10.1006/jmsc.2000.0570
1095-9289
Univariate seasonal ARIMA and intervention models were developed to forecast monthly catches of 53 commercial species in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, up to one year in advance. In general terms, there was good agreement between forecasts and observed catches of target demersal species. By contrast, models fitted to non-target demersal species and pelagic species were unsatisfactory in terms of explained variability and predicting power. Large commercial size classes were better explained than the small size classes. Intervention analysis was used to identify the significance, magnitude and form of structural shifts (interventions) of the time series for each species. Most of the fitted interventions appeared in small commercial size classes and indicated a decrease in the mean level of the catch. Seasonality of demersal
species, caught mainly by trawlers, was mainly attributed to changing availability and recruitment. By contrast, gear type explained the seasonal variation in landings of pelagic and some coastal species. Catch declines of two species were also compared with the variations of their respective seasonal patterns
eng
closedAccess
ARIMA/Box-Jenkins models
Catch dynamics
Fishery resources
Forecasts
Intervention analysis
Northwestern Mediterranean
Seasonal pattern
Trend
ARIMA
Time series modelling of landings in Northwest Mediterranean Sea
artículo