2024-03-28T08:21:43Zhttp://digital.csic.es/dspace-oai/requestoai:digital.csic.es:10261/1816762019-11-08T14:40:56Zcom_10261_88com_10261_8col_10261_341
Alonso, David
Dobson, A. P.
Pascual, Mercedes
2019-05-20T06:47:50Z
2019-05-20T06:47:50Z
2019
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society-B 374: 20180275 (2019)
0080-4622
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/181676
The history of modelling vector-borne infections essentially begins with the
papers by Ross on malaria. His models assume that the dynamics of malaria
can most simply be characterized by two equations that describe the prevalence
of malaria in the human and mosquito hosts. This structure has
formed the central core of models for malaria and most other vector-borne
diseases for the past century, with additions acknowledging important aetiological
details.We partially add to this tradition by describing amalaria model
that provides for vital dynamics in the vector and the possibility of superinfection
in the human host: reinfection of asymptomatic hosts before they
have cleared a prior infection. These key features of malaria aetiology create
the potential for break points in the prevalence of infected hosts, sudden
transitions that seem to characterize malaria’s response to control in different
locations. We show that this potential for critical transitions is a general and
underappreciated feature of any model for vector-borne diseases with incomplete
immunity, including the canonical Ross–McDonald model. Ignoring
these details of the host’s immune response to infection can potentially lead
to serious misunderstanding in the interpretation of malaria distribution
patterns and the design of control schemes for other vector-borne diseases.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks
in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.
This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious
disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting
and control’.
eng
openAccess
Malaria dynamics
Critical transitions
Alternative steady states
Malaria superinfection
Backward bifurcation
Hysteresis in malaria model
Critical transitions in malaria transmission models are consistently generated by superinfection
artículo