2024-03-28T17:51:37Zhttp://digital.csic.es/dspace-oai/requestoai:digital.csic.es:10261/222772020-06-02T09:19:05Zcom_10261_65com_10261_8com_10261_75com_10261_6col_10261_318col_10261_328
DIGITAL.CSIC
author
Beguería, Santiago
2010-03-11T14:42:51Z
2010-03-11T14:42:51Z
2006-01
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 45 (1): 108-124
1558-8424
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/22277
10.1175/JAM2324.1
The occurrence of rainfalls of high magnitude constitutes a primary natural hazard in many parts of the world, and the elaboration of maps showing the hazard of extreme rainfalls has great theoretical and practical interest. In this work a procedure based on extreme value analysis and spatial interpolation techniques is described. The result is a probability model in which the distribution parameters vary smoothly in space. This methodology is applied to the middle Ebro Valley (Spain), a climatically complex area with great contrasts because of the relief and exposure to different air masses. The database consists of 43 daily precipitation series from 1950 to 2000. Because rainfall tends to occur highly clustered in time in the area, a declustering process was applied to the data, and the series of daily cluster maxima were used hereinafter. The mean excess plot and error minimizing were used to find an optimum threshold value to retain the highest records (peaks-over-threshold approach), and a Poisson–generalized Pareto model was fitted to the resulting series. The at-site parameter estimates (location, scale, and shape) were regressed upon a set of location and relief variables, enabling the construction of a spatially explicit probability model. The advantages of this method to obtain maps of extreme precipitation hazard are discussed in depth.
eng
openAccess
Mapping the Hazard of Extreme Rainfall by Peaks over Threshold Extreme Value Analysis and Spatial Regression Techniques
artículo
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URL
https://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/22277/1/BegueriaS_JAmMeteorolClim_2006.pdf
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BegueriaS_JAmMeteorolClim_2006.pdf
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https://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/22277/4/BegueriaS_JAmMeteorolClim_2006.pdf.txt
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BegueriaS_JAmMeteorolClim_2006.pdf.txt