A Survey-based Assessment of Cod in Division 3M

Abstract

The cod stock in NAFO division 3M is in fishing moratorium since 1999. Commercial catches have been very low since then, although they were noticeable in 2006. During the last few years a survey-based assessment method has been used to evaluate the stock status in a stochastic way. The method takes into account uncertainties in survey results as well as in catchability estimates. The present document updates the results of the assessment conducted in 2006 (details in Murua et al. 2006) incorporating the survey data from 2006. The results indicate a strong age 1 abundance value in 2006 and an increasing trend in spawning stock biomass (SSB) after its lowest value attained in 2003. Nevertheless, the probability that SSB is presently below Blim is still very high. The abundances at age 1 estimated for 2005 and 2006 are the highest since 1993. As a consequence, there is some expectation that the increasing SSB trend may continue during the next few years.