Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/45955
Share/Impact:
Título : A Bayesian model for anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus): the combined forcing of man and environment
Autor : Ruiz Segura, Javier, González-Quirós, Rafael, Prieto, Laura, Navarro, Gabriel
Palabras clave : Anchovy
Anthropogenic forcing
Bayesian model
Environmental forcing
Gulf of Cadiz
Life cycle
Fecha de publicación : 28-Jan-2009
Resumen: Fishery collapses frequently result from combined pressures of the environment and man, which are difficult to discern because of the complexities involved and our limited knowledge. Models to resolve this complexity often become too sophisticated, with too many assumptions and, consequently, with little capacity to predict beyond calibration data. In this paper we implement a different procedure where the model is kept simple and uncertainty accounts for the equation imperfectness to reproduce ecological complexity. Human and environmental forcing on an anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) stock are simulated with only six parameters plus their error terms, and the uncertainty is computed with Bayesian methods. The simple structure is able to reproduce the major dynamical features of this species in the Gulf of Cádiz, including data on life stages and age structure that had no contact with the model. This is a distinct performance for a frugal approach working on a mid-trophic species and a positive instance where parsimony can simulate the interaction of man, fish and the environment, provided uncertainty is accounted for in the process.
Descripción : 15 páginas, 9 figuras, 2 tablas.
Versión del editor: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2419.2008.00497.x
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/10261/45955
ISSN: 1054-6006
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2008.00497.x
Citación : Fisheries Oceanography 18(1): 62-76 (2009)
Appears in Collections:(ICMAN) Artículos

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Show full item record
 
CSIC SFX LinksSFX Query


Items in Digital.CSIC are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.