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Closed Access item Quantitative calibration of remote mountain lake sediments as climatic recorders of air temperature and ice-cover duration. Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, 37(4): 626-635.
Hall, R. I.
|Publisher:||university of colorado at boulder institute of arctic and alpine research|
|Citation:||Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 37(4) : 626-635 (2005)|
|Abstract:||A combination of empirical modeling and a diatom-based transfer function was developed to reconstruct air temperature and ice-cover duration through the study of lake sediments. By using a thermal degree-day modeling approach, ice-cover duration on European mountain and sub-Arctic lakes is found to be very sensitive to temperature change. For example, our model, which incorporates a weather generator, predicts a 100-day shortening in ice-cover duration for a 3°C temperature rise for catchments at elevations of 1500 m in the Southern Alps and the Pyrenees. For the more maritime lakes of Scotland, 30% higher sensitivities (130 d per 3°C) are found, whereas lakes in northwest Finland, in a more continental setting, have only half the sensitivity (50 d per 3°C). A pan-European data set of the species abundance of 252 diatom taxa in 459 mountain and sub-Arctic lakes has been compiled and taxonomically harmonized. Transfer functions were created that relate both seasonal air temperature and ice-cover duration to diatom species composition on the basis of a weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) approach. Cross validation was used to test the transfer functions. For ice-cover duration the pan-European data set yields an R-squared value of 0.73, a jack-knifed R-squared value of 0.58, and a residual-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 23 days. A regional, northern Fennoscandian transect (151 lakes, 122 taxa) yields a jack-knifed R-squared value of 0.50 and an RMSEP of 9 days. For air temperature the pan-European database displayed greatest skill when reconstructing winter or spring temperatures. This result contrasts with the summer temperatures normally studied when using local elevation gradients. The northern Fennoscandian transect has a remarkably low winter RMSEP of 0.73°C.|
|Publisher version (URL):||http://dx.doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2005)037[0626:QCORMS]2.0.CO;2|
|Appears in Collections:||(CEAB) Artículos|
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