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Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran

AutorShooshtari, Sharif Joorabian; Shayesteh, Kamran; Gholamalifard, Mehdi; Azari, Mahmood; Serrano Notivoli, Roberto ; López-Moreno, Juan I.
Palabras claveland cover change modelling
climate variability
Fecha de publicaciónnov-2017
EditorTaylor & Francis
CitaciónShooshtari SJ, Shayesteh K, Gholamalifard M, Azari M, Serrano-Notivoli R, López-Moreno JI. Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal 62 (16): 2655-2673 (2017)
ResumenWe evaluated the potential impacts of future land cover change and climate variability on hydrological processes in the Neka River basin, northern Iran. This catchment is the main source of water for the intensively cultivated area of Neka County. Hydrological simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. An ensemble of 17 CMIP5 climate models was applied to assess changes in temperature and precipitation under the moderate and high emissions scenarios. To generate the business-as-usual scenario map for year 2050 we used the Land Change Modeler. With a combined change in land cover and climate, discharge is expected to decline in all seasons except the end of autumn and winter, based on the inter-model average and various climate models, which illustrated a high degree of uncertainty in discharge projections. Land cover change had a minor influence on discharge relative to that resulting from climate change.
Descripción19 Pags.- 11 Figs.- 7 Tabls.
Versión del editorhttps://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1403028
E-ISSN 2150-3435
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