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Quantifying anthropogenic and natural contributions to thermosteric sea level rise

AutorMarcos, Marta ; Amores, Ángel
Palabras claveanthropogenic forcing
climate models
thermosteric sea level
Fecha de publicación16-abr-2014
EditorAmerican Geophysical Union
CitaciónGeophysical Research Letters 41(7): 2502-2507 (2014)
ResumenChanges in thermosteric sea level at decadal and longer time scales respond to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability of the climate system. Disentangling these contributions is essential to quantify the impact of human activity in the past and to anticipate thermosteric sea level rise under global warming. Climate models, fed with radiative forcing, display a large spread of outputs with limited correspondence with the observationally based estimates of thermosteric sea level during the last decades of the twentieth century. Here we extract the common signal of climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 using a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function technique for the period 1950-2005. Our results match the observed trends, improving the widely used approach of multimodel ensemble averaging. We then compute the fraction of the observed thermosteric sea level rise of anthropogenic origin and conclude that 87% of the observed trend in the upper 700-m since 1970 is induced by human activity. Key Points Global thermosteric sea level rise at 87% since 1970 is human induced The S/N maximizing EOF improves the simple multimodel averaging The impact of gases concentrations is spatially heterogeneous © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Versión del editorhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059766
Identificadoresdoi: 10.1002/2014GL059766
issn: 1944-8007
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