Climate change impacts on coastal benthic ecosystems in the NW Mediterranean Sea: assessing potential risk from field; laboratory and numerical experiments

Abstract

Our main aim was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on coastal benthic ecosystems by the end of the 21st century at sub-regional scale: the North Western Mediterranean Sea. We developed an original strategy for the definition of warming scenarios in coastal habitats and their potential sub-lethal to lethal impacts on key benthic species. This was achieved by combining high resolution numerical simulations under IPCC scenarios with field observations and thermotolerance experiments. First, model validation for 2001-2010 was conducted in contrasted sensitive coastal areas. Forecasts run were performed under IPCC scenarios to explore changes in stratification. These simulations were qualified with species distribution and thermotolerance functions to explore present risk level and potential impacts by the end of the century