2024-03-28T23:34:29Zhttp://digital.csic.es/dspace-oai/requestoai:digital.csic.es:10261/1494362022-12-13T12:45:59Zcom_10261_12com_10261_8com_10261_48com_10261_5com_10261_77col_10261_265col_10261_301col_10261_330
Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora
Patiño, Jairo
Mateo, Rubén G.
Zanatta, Florian
Marquet, Adrien
Aranda, Silvia C.
Borges, Paulo A.V.
Dirkse, Gerard
Gabriel, Rosalina
González-Mancebo, Juana María
Guisan, Antoine
Muñoz, Jesús
Sim-Sim, Manuela
Vanderpoorten, Alain
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
Conservation Biology
Climate-change ecology
Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.
2017-05-08T09:55:09Z
2017-05-08T09:55:09Z
2016-07-05
2017-05-08T09:55:09Z
artículo
Scientific Reports 6: 29156 (2016)
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/149436
10.1038/srep29156
http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003329
27377592
eng
Publisher's version
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
openAccess
Nature Publishing Group